Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
